Reform’s Bid for the Senedd: A Trump-Like Revolution?

Reform is coming. Love it or hate it, one thing is clear: the party is poised to make an impact in the 2026 Senedd elections. Current polling and conversations with other parties point to the same conclusion: Reform is preparing to secure a significant foothold.
Farage’s Ambitious Vision
Fresh from America, Nigel Farage arrived in Newport and announced his intentions at the party conference. He aims to position Reform as the second largest party and the main opposition to Labour in Wales. But there are critical issues the party need to address:
The Leadership Void
One glaring issue for Reform is the need for a clear leader in Wales. Who will be the party’s candidate for First Minister? Who will step up to represent them in media interviews and debates? These questions remain unanswered, and there is no clear timeline for filling this gap.
The Policy Vacuum
With just 18 months before the election, Reform has yet to present a defined policy platform. Their current strategy leans on criticising the current governments in Westminster and Cardiff Bay.
The only significant policy hint so far comes from Farage’s stance on the NHS. He has floated the idea of a “fundamental rethink” on NHS funding. He has previously spoken of his admiration for systems in countries like France, which use an insurance top-up model. Broader plans addressing Wales’ economy, education, and other needs remain absent.
A Glimpse at Reform’s Strategy
One of the most striking elements of the conference was the turnout—between 800 and 1,000—figures that the more established parties could only dream of.
Reform’s commitment to producing a polished image was clear. The event showcased an impressive stage, professional lighting, and sound systems. Reform generated a significant amount of its own video content, designed for sharp, shareable clips on social media. This signals that the 2026 Senedd election may very well be fought on TikTok and other platforms that younger voters favour – a lesson from the Trump campaign?
One element was visibly absent: civil society. Third-sector organisations and familiar figures who typically attend such conferences were absent.
What Lies Ahead?
At this stage, the question isn’t whether Reform will make it to Cardiff Bay, but how many of them will.
Anything can change between now and May 2026, but their arrival seems certain based on the current evidence.
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